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COVID-19 update – April 7: Scenarios suggest between 1,263 and 8,860 deaths; cases in HSL stable at 6

On Tuesday, April 7, the provincial government released potential scenarios for the outcome of the COVID-19 pandemic. The optimistic or best-case model predicts a total of 29,000 positive cases and 1,263 deaths from the virus by the end of the month, while the pessimistic or worst-case scenario suggests 60,000 cases and 8860 deaths. The scientists behind the models also forecast that the peak in the province may be reached around April 18. Currently, the province is well below the pessimistic scenario. The models were created based on Québec data as well as information from several European countries.

The number of cases in the Haut-Saint-Laurent remains stable. (PHOTO: Direction de Santé de la Montérégie)

The number of deaths in the province jumped by 29 to a total of 150 on Tuesday. The province is now reporting a total of 9,340 positive cases, an increase of 760 cases. Hospitalizations rose by 50 to a total of 583 individuals, with no change in the number being treated in intensive care at 164. In Montérégie, the number of positive cases rose by 67 to a total of 961. The vast majority of the cases are located in the Longeuil area. The number of cases in the Haut-Saint-Laurent has remained stable for the past 72 hours at 6 cases, while numbers are slowly climbing in surrounding MRCs. The number of positive cases in the MRC des Jardins-de-Napierville rose by one to 23 cases, while the number in the MRC du Beauharnois-Salaberry jumped by three. Vaudreuil-Soulanges has the highest number of cases in the Suroît region with 107 cases. In a video posted to Facebook, Julie Loslier, the Director of Santé Publique de la Montérégie, said it is “likely that there are people who have the virus but are not aware of it.” Therefore, it is important that residents behave as though there could be infected people all around them.

Québec released the projected number of positive cases of COVID-19 in the province Tuesday. (Chart: CBC, Source: Government of Québec)
The province also released scenarios for the potential number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 in Québec. (Chart: CBC, Source: Government of Quebec)

During his daily address, Premier François Legault reminded Québecers that public safety measures had to be respected regardless of the Easter long weekend coming up. He also addressed the mild controversy surrounding the wearing of masks by the general population, saying that it was important people remember that a mask could help the wearer from spreading the virus, but would not protect against it. More importantly, a mask can in no way replace any of the other guidelines to practice social distancing and hand washing. Finally, responding to a child’s question, he reassured Québecers that the tooth fairy was considered an essential service and that she was immune to the virus.

Prime Minister Trudeau addressed concerns about shortages of medical supplies during his morning address Tuesday, announcing that 30,000 made-in-Canada ventilators will be manufactured in the coming weeks and months. When asked by reporters whether we need that many, Trudeau answered, “we are ready for any situation.” He went on to say that if we don’t need this number, Canada will be in a position to share these ventilators globally. At least 500,000 masks will also be delivered to Canada from the United States. The Prime Minister reported that 3.67 million Canadians have applied to EI and CERB (Canadian Emergency Response Benefit) since March 15.

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